Why isn?t Romney Doing Better in the Polls?

EDITOR?S NOTE:? The Need-to-Know Presidential Race memo will not publish during the national political conventions, which begin next week. Instead, National Journal will offer morning and evening updates that focus on convention news. Publication will resume Sept. 7.

Just about any analysis of the 2012 presidential election should start with words to the effect that this is a very close race.

Still, this race shouldn?t be as tight as it is. Whether one looks at polling measurements of whether voters think the country is headed in the right direction, at consumer confidence, or at key economic measurements, it is puzzling that polls show President Obama and Mitt Romney running neck and neck. Incumbents generally don?t get reelected with numbers like we are seeing today.

So why isn?t Romney doing better? If we wake up on Nov. 7 to find that Romney has lost, here are four explanations:

First, Romney is a very bright guy but hardly a natural candidate. ?Presidential races are not likability contests, but voters need to feel comfortable with the person they back.

Second is that the Romney camp did not lay down a layer of positive ads at the outset to give voters some understanding of who its candidate is. So when the deluge of negative ads about Bain Capital, layoffs, outsourcing, income taxes, and foreign bank accounts came, Romney had no Teflon coating to protect him. The dynamic was more like Velcro.

Third is Romney?s decision to spurn an effort by Sen.?Marco Rubio, R-Fla., to find a middle ground for the Republican Party on the Dream Act. Black voters are pretty much out of reach, but Rubio offered a route that could have shaved the Hispanic deficit. No dice.

Finally, as much as conservatives are thrilled with Romney?s choice of?Rep. Paul Ryan?as his running mate, anything that takes the focus off the economy and Obama?s handling of it is not a good thing for the GOP ticket.

Romney may still win this election. It?s awfully close. But if he doesn?t, the knives will be long, sharp, and unforgiving. Read more

?Charlie Cook

NATIONAL JOURNAL?S PRESIDENTIAL RACE REPORT

Storm Threatening Tampa Puts GOP Climate Position in Spotlight
[National Journal, 8/24/12] The GOP has shifted hard to the right on climate change since the last presidential election: Romney has walked back his views that humans contribute to global warming, while Ryan has questioned the science of climate change. But Republicans say they are not worried that a hurricane at their convention will ignite criticism on their party?s energy positions.

Tampa Mayor: Storm Threat Greatly Diminished
[National Journal, 8/23/12] State, local, and Republican National Convention officials are less concerned that Tropical Storm Isaac will be a severe disruption to next week?s gathering, Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn said, after the latest projections show the storm moving west of the city.

Oil Donors Fete Romney Ahead of Unveiling Energy Plan
[Bloomberg News, 8/24/12] Days after holding fundraisers attended by key members of America?s oil and gas industry, Romney called on Thursday for the aggressive development of fossil fuels to make the U.S. an ?energy superpower.? Oil industry executives lauded the proposal, while Democrats said it would weaken federal environmental safeguards.

Romney?s Energy Plan Doubles Down on Fossil Fuels
[NPR, 8/23/12] Romney?s energy plan makes no mention of climate change and would end subsidies for cleaner sources of energy, such as wind and solar. The plan, which focuses on fossil fuels, relies heavily on creating deeper partnerships with Mexico and Canada.

Tampa Bay Times Editor Details Convention Coverage
[Tampa Bay Times, 8/24/12] The Times has joined with Politico to produce a 20-page convention special report, deployed 150 staff reporters, editors, photographers, and artists through Tampa Bay, launched a blog on the convention called The Big Tent, and will hold politicians accountable with its prize-winning fact-checking operation PolitiFact.com.

Booker, Villaraigosa Added to Democratic Convention Speakers
[National Journal, 8/24/12] Newark Mayor Cory Booker and Los Angeles Mayor and convention chairman Antonio Villaraigosa are among the latest speakers added to the lineup at the Democratic National Convention early next month.

Romney: ?Big Business is Doing Fine?
[National Journal, 8/23/12] As he argued for the need to cut regulations for small businesses, Romney told a group of donors on Thursday that ?big business is doing fine? due to the ability of large companies to utilize ?low tax havens around the world.? The comments draw attention to the fact that he has kept and invested much of his own money overseas.

Romney?s Florida Fat Cat
[Daily Beast, 8/24/12] The 82-year-old Mel Sembler ? the former finance chairman of the Republican National Committee as well as a former U.S. ambassador to Italy ? has been raising money for Romney since the two had a heart to heart in 2007.

GOP Moves Up Romney Nominating Vote
[New York Times, 8/23/12] Due to concerns about supporters of libertarian Texas Rep. Ron Paul, as well as the impact Tropical Storm Isaac could have on the convention, Republican delegates will begin the roll call vote to officially nominate Romney on Monday -- days before the party normally nominates a candidate.

For the Ryans, a Union Across Political Lines
[New York Times, 8/23/12] Janna Ryan?s path is an unconventional one for a woman from Democratic Party royalty in Oklahoma, who gave up her career as a Washington lobbyist to become a wife and mother in Janesville, Wis., as her husband built his career.?

Political Connections: The New Math
[National Journal, 8/23/12] If Obama gets 80 percent of minority votes he needs just 40 percent of whites to win; Meanwhile, Romney will win if he captures 61 percent of the white vote, so long as whites constitute at least 74 percent of the overall vote, as they did last time, and Obama doesn?t improve on his 80 percent minority showing. These calculations, National Journal?s Ron Brownstein writes, underscore the depth of racial polarization shadowing this election. ?

Romney Op-Ed: What I Learned at Bain Capital
[Wall Street Journal, 8/23/12] Romney writes in Friday?s Journal that his 15 years at Bain Capital taught him to face problems head-on, and that a good idea is not enough for a business to succeed. Among other initiatives, he writes that his presidency would reduce regulations and simplify taxes for small businesses, repeal Obamacare, and put in place an energy policy that would create jobs and make energy more affordable.

Romney Team of ?Mad Men? Creates Ads to Sell Nation on Candidate
[Washington Post, 8/23/12] A colorful team of advertising gurus ? including a onetime ?Wheel of Fortune? contestant and a burly Texan who came up with the ?Beef it?s what?s for dinner? slogan ? are trying to create an emotional bond between the candidate and the public, and tell the story of the ?Obama economy.?

Forget the Mormon Moment; It?s About Catholics
[Associated Press, 8/24/12] This campaign is the first in which Catholics are on both major party tickets. While Catholics don?t vote as a bloc, they comprise about one-quarter of the electorate ? and the candidate who wins Catholic voters usually wins the White House. But neither Obama nor Romney has established a consistent lead among these voters.

Michigan GOP Getting Star Treatment at Convention, Despite Breaking Rules
[Detroit Free Press, 8/24/12] After breaking national party rules when they held the state?s February primary ahead of the schedule approved by the party, it?s surprising that Michigan?s Republican activists are getting special treatment at the convention. Could it have something to do with the fact that Michigan Republicans delivered Michigan-born Romney a crucial win in the primaries?

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Source: http://news.yahoo.com/why-isn-t-romney-doing-better-polls-090053791.html

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