Redistricting sets off scramble in California primaries

SACRAMENTO (Reuters) - California's nonpartisan redrawing of electoral lines for U.S. congressional districts is expected to set off the biggest scramble in at least a decade during primary polls on Tuesday in the most populous state.

The new election map could end up shifting seats to the Democrats in a state that gave President Barack Obama a 24-point margin of victory over his Republican rival John McCain in 2008, analysts said.

For a decade, California's delegation in the House of Representatives was remarkably stable thanks to the deliberate creation of electoral districts to favor incumbents, a process known as gerrymandering. In 263 individual elections from 2002 to 2010, only one congressional seat changed political party.

"California was totally locked in on this gerrymandered map," said Kyle Kondik, political analyst at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "With nonpartisan redistricting and this new top two primary system, California suddenly becomes very interesting and one of the more competitive states in the entire country."

For the first time, California took most of the redrawing of electoral boundary lines after the once-a-decade national census out of the hands of politicians and gave it to a 14-member "citizens commission."

It also made a major change to the rules in primary voting, held to narrow the field of candidates before the main election. It now requires that the two candidates who get the most votes will advance to the general election in November, regardless of party. This means that two Democrats or two Republicans could be competing for the same congressional seat on November 6.

For the first time since 1920, slowing population growth meant that California did not add any seats to its 53-member congressional delegation, adding even more uncertainty by pitting some incumbents against one another.

"Short-term, this is off the rails, this is crazy," said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic consultant in California.

A string of districts in California's Central Valley, clustered along Interstate 5 through agricultural land from Sacramento to the outskirts of Los Angeles, are among the most hotly contested under the new arrangement.

Seats in the region are currently split evenly, at three each between Democrats and Republicans.

"In California, if there are districts that are going to swing one way or another, it is these," Kondik said. "Just in that area, you'll probably see more action in the next 10 years than you did in the entire state over the last 10."

INCUMBENT VS. INCUMBENT

Redistricting has also created a "huge leap" in the number of districts that have percentages of minority voters topping 50 percent, according to Mitchell, with majority-Hispanic districts increasing from 19 to 29 and the emergence of the only majority- Asian legislative district in the continental United States.

Two congressional contests are garnering particular attention for pitting longtime incumbents against one another.

Longtime Representatives Howard Berman and Brad Sherman, who have similar voting records, are duking it out in a closely watched race in California's 30th district, in Los Angeles County. Analysts say that both are likely to advance to a real competition in November.

"This primary on Tuesday for them is like a pre-season NFL football game," Kondik said. "It's like a dress rehearsal for the actual election."

The same is true of two incumbent Democratic congresswomen, Janice Hahn and Laura Richardson, who are facing off in the 44th district in Los Angeles County.

In their quest to win back a majority in the House, Democrats would have to gain four or five seats in California, which Kondik said would be difficult but not impossible.

Republicans now hold a 242 to 190 majority, with three seats vacant. Outside of California and Illinois, Democrats are mainly playing defense, trying to hold seats they already have.

CLOSE MARGINS

Several other states also will hold primaries on Tuesday.

In Montana, candidates for a Senate seat are well on track to break political spending records, with donations pouring into a state where advertising is relatively cheap.

That U.S. Senate battle is one of the hottest in the nation with Montana's only member of the House, Republican Denny Rehberg, challenging first-term incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester.

Both candidates are known across the state and are expected to easily win their respective party primaries on Tuesday.

New Mexico has another closely watched U.S. Senate contest after Democratic Senator Jeff Bingaman announced last year that he was retiring after 30 years.

While New Mexico leans toward the Democrats because of its large Hispanic population, the state occasionally elects Republicans such as Governor Susana Martinez.

Republicans are targeting the New Mexico seat in their quest to win a majority of the U.S. Senate in 2012. Democrats now hold a 51 to 47 majority, with two independents who usually vote with Democrats.

Former Congresswoman Heather Wilson is expected to easily win the Republican nomination over businessman Greg Sowards, said Brian Sanderoff, president of Research and Polling Inc in Albuquerque.

In the Democratic Senate primary in New Mexico, the race is expected to be more competitive between Congressman Martin Heinrich and state Auditor Hector Balderas. While Heinrich leads in the polls, Sanderoff said undecided Hispanic voters will most likely choose a Hispanic surname when they go to vote.

In New Jersey, primary voters will select among candidates in the race to replace U.S. Representative Donald Payne, the state's first black congressman, who died in March.

Payne's son, Newark City Council President Donald Payne Jr., is one of six candidates running. The elder Payne had represented New Jersey's 10th congressional district since 1989.

Primaries will also be held in South Dakota, North Dakota, and Iowa, but most competitive races in those states will be in November.

(Additional reporting by Dan Boyce in Montana, Zelie Pollon in New Mexico, David Bailey in Minnesota, Kay Henderson in Iowa and Edith Honan in New York; Editing by Greg McCune and Eric Walsh)

(This story was corrected to fix polling data in New Mexico race in paragraph 27)

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